Winter to Arrive Late?

The pattern change I mentioned on my last blog has happened with the benign zonal muck replaced by much more seasonal weather.
I have recorded two successive nights of minus 5 temperatures and so far two lovely, cold sunny days with beautiful crisp blue skies.

Apple bathed in late afternoon January sun

The really interesting feature of this current spell of weather is the way in which the major computer forecasting models, GFS, ECM and UKMO have differred so markedly in the pattern evolution, kick started by a long over-due SSW that has eroded (not completely) the Azores high that has given us this mild winter thus far. (another SSW event is forecast but the effects can take weeks to filter down)

A crisp clear sky that only winter can give you

I am now more optimistic than ever that February will be our best shot for a cold and snowy spell (like the good ole days) as many of the building blocks are coming into place for a potent and sustained Easterly or North Easterly which should bring proper snow to the favoured areas.

I often mention how pleased I am with the accuracy of my Long Range Forecast and way back in September I called February to be the coldest and snowiest month and as it currently stands many expert forecasters are calling the same, backed up by the computer models, so If you want, need, desire snow the Siberian express is on its way but its stopping at every station. It will get here but will it be worth the wait?

12 snowless months

The Christmas lights are packed away for another year, the tree has been unceremoniously butchered and discarded at the refuse tip and the zonal, boring weather that characterised much of 2011 has continued into 2012, the London Olympics and Diamond Jubilee year.

Apple inspects two fallen trees

I'm reasonably pleased with my LRF that predicted a much milder December than 2010 but I, like others are surprised at just how mild it has been, I read somewhere that its been the second warmest December on record!

If you're a cold and snow fan you can't fail to be disappointed with what the first month of winter has delivered but my view is that we have been spoilt by the last two winters and the weather we have had in December is pretty much what we normally have, wind, rain and very little snow.

So into January and the theme continues, the unusually windy conditions I predicted for the second week came yesterday with severe gales and damaging gusts bringing widespread damage and disruption with two people losing their lives due to trees being uprooted, more is expected later today but will not be as severe as yesterday.

I stated in my LRF that a change to much colder conditions will happen around mid-month and it does now look like the pattern that has given us this mild weather could be about to change around that time, so a change is likely that could bring drier and colder conditions but that means frosts as opposed to snow I'm afraid.

Chin up though snow-lovers, February is the month I predicted to be the coldest so lets wait and see.