Winter 2011/12 Forecast

A Cold Dry Winter
...but not a record breaker

There has been much speculation and indeed scare-mongering in recent newspapers about early snowfall in autumn leading to a bitterly cold winter.
October and November winter patterns can give reasonable indications of what winter may bring, so to do a forecast now seems a bit fool hardy but its only for fun and you never know I may get lucky!

So here we go....

This winter will be dominated by high pressure systems essentially keeping the Atlantic quiet which will mean a drier than average winter.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler than average when measured over the three months of winter, Dec, Jan and Feb but this winter's pattern will be different to 2010/2011 where the extreme cold lasted just  six weeks from mid November to late December with January and February being milder than average.

The reason I give for this change from last winter is due to recent low sun-spot activity and the increasingly weakening La Nina which both favour the real cold of winter coming later.

December


First two weeks above average temperatures and average precipitation getting colder from mid month with sharp frosts and freezing fog.
Much milder than last December  as a whole but no snowfall and no white Christmas this year

January 2012


Early cold in the first week gives way to a mild spell with low pressure moving in from the west giving unusually windy conditions for January. Possible sleet showers here in the SE.
From mid month onwards high pressure is expected to build drawing in cold easterly winds with the possible threat of disruptive snowfall where the cold air from the East meets the milder air from the West.

Temperatures below average and certainly colder than last January, below average precipitation for the month.

February 2012

The coldest month of this winter with temperatures struggling to get  above freezing during the day for the first three weeks, extremely sharp night time frosts and clear, cold sunny days is the pattern for most of the month.
The last week slightly milder with precipitation much below average for the month as a whole.

Summary

Not as cold as last winter  overall but it will be cold for longer, we just won't have the extreme start to winter we did last year, I don't anticipate much snowfall this year so overall a pretty nondescript winter I'm afraid.

Mercury Rising

A record breaking spell of hot weather is due to come to a close in the next few days but what a spell of weather it has been, cloudless blue skies and warm continental breezes have made it feel like you are on holiday!
The previous October record of 29.4 degrees has been officially broken and here in Hawley my highest was 30.8 on the 1st with the last 6 days being over 25 degrees, better than any spell we had this summer and to see the blue sky at last has been very welcome, just our luck that the nights are now longer than the days!
So record breaking temperatures in October, recent newspaper headlines predicting heavy snowfall this month what is going on?

Apple makes her blog debut as Matt and NND bask in the Indian summer sunshine

I will shortly publish my winter forecast so check back soon!