April 2012-- wet! wet! wet!

The dry winter and exceptionally dry March has given way to one of the wettest April's since record began.
Here in Hawley I recorded 82mm of rain, to put this into context below is the rainfall amounts recorded over the previous 6 years.

a very wet month!

2006: 38.4mm
2007: 4.8mm
2008: 0.2mm
2009: 22.1mm
2010: 13.5mm
2011: 1.2mm (6 days data missing)

The combined totals of these months is still 2mm short of 2012's which just proves what an incredibly wet month it was, good news for the farmers and water companies though!

Stats: high temp.   18.2C
          low temp.    -4.4C
          mean temp.   8.1
          high wind.    38.0 mph
          rain.              82.0 mm

March 2012

cloudless skies

The first month of spring started as February ended with warm sunshine and cloudless skies, a high temperature of 17.5C recorded on the 1st and this was to set the scene for the rest of the month.
With only 11.8mm of rain it was an exceptionally dry month that has forced many water companies to issue hose pipe bans following three dry winters.

water levels low

Stats: high temp: 22.8C
         low temp:  -2.5
         mean:         7.8
         rain:            11.8mm
         high wind:   38.0

Winter 2011-2012 Summary

It's been a while since my last blog and I have decided to do monthly summaries so its easier to compare month for month in future years.
To supplement this I will also issue 'season summaries' so I thought I would start with the winter just gone.
December always brings the most anticipation if you like the prospect of a picture post card Christmas, little children with rosy red faces peering into brightly lit shop windows being briskly pulled away by mothers with fur collars and long scarves laden with bags of shopping, tree lined avenues, branches heavy with snow, lead laden skies that threaten more, and the prospect of arriving home to a roaring fire and a hot mug of soup...
The reality of December 2011 was far different from the picture that I have just described and completely different to the previous year that delivered the coldest start to winter for one hundred years.
There were many weather 'agencies' and hopeful amateurs that predicted 'snow-maggeddon' and although I was broadly accurate with my December forecast, I, like many others, were caught out by just how mild December turned out to be, the mean temperature for the month was 6.6C much warmer than 2010's 0.4C and the second warmest in Hawley since I started keeping records in 2005. ( for information, Dec 2006 was the warmest @ 7.2C) and of course no white Christmas!

So did things improve in January? with a mean of 6.0C it was colder than 2007 & 2008 (7.8C and 7.5C respectively) but again was a mild month overall, five nights mid-month recorded temparatures of -3.4 - 5.9 and that was really the highlights of January.
I predicted February would be the coldest month and indeed it delivered a reasonable snowfall, but it really was a month of two halves. For the first two weeks it looked like that the mean for the month would be below zero, but from mid-month onwards there was a dramatic change with un-seaonally warm temperatures that persisted until month end. Interesting stats: Lowest Temp, -10.3 Highest Temp: 19.8 and the mean ended up 4.3 ( second coldest since 2005)

So there it is, a rather boring winter and actually fairly typical of our winters of the last twenty years, the really cold weather never reached us and stayed in eastern Europe that in some places had the harshest winter for many, many years.

Snow At Last!

Field at the back of my house

Just a quick blog update to post a few pictures.

Apple enjoys the snow

It started snowing last night around 9:15 pm and by this morning I had 8cm (measured from the car roof) not mega amounts by any means but enough to transform the landscape which to me is why I love snow!

Today has seen the temperature just climb above 1C so a slow thaw has set in, which will mean icy conditions as the slush turns to ice overnight.

My road

Things look interesting as we head into the middle of the week as the deep cold affecting Europe will again march towards the UK bringing much depressed day time and night time temperatures so hard frosts and freezing fog will continue to ensure February is, at least until mid-month, a proper winter month!

Burying a car is always fun

Europe Freezes, UK Shivers!

The cold Arctic airmass bottled up over the North Pole for most of the winter has finally been let loose and is causing death and disruption across Eastern Europe with some places having their most severe cold spell for 30 years, temperatures of -20-30 have recorded in many places.
The icy fingers of that deep cold pool has stretched to the UK but thanks to the warm North Sea acting to insulate this island those extreme temperatures are not being experienced here.

severe temperatures over europe

But that doesn't mean that winter has not arrived because it most certainly has. After almost record breaking mild weather so far this winter this weeks temperatures have barely raised the Mercury and has certainly caused a shock to the system!
So,we have the cold but what about the snow? so far this cold spell has failed to deliver for fans of the white stuff, quite frustrating given that the frigid continental air has come from the coldest source and has crossed the warm (in comparison) North sea!
And so to the West we must look for our moisture, warm Atlantic lows are on a collision course with the freezing Siberian highs that are giving us temperatures 4c lower than average so far this month, and where these two systems meet then significant, prolonged snowfall will result, and for the lucky ones, should equal or better December 2010.
The current prediction is that Kent should see the most snowfall but all areas of England are under Met Office yellow alert for Friday, Saturday and Sunday, but as usual some areas could get plastered and some will miss out.
Will we get some here in North Kent?..I think so..

Winter to Arrive Late?

The pattern change I mentioned on my last blog has happened with the benign zonal muck replaced by much more seasonal weather.
I have recorded two successive nights of minus 5 temperatures and so far two lovely, cold sunny days with beautiful crisp blue skies.

Apple bathed in late afternoon January sun

The really interesting feature of this current spell of weather is the way in which the major computer forecasting models, GFS, ECM and UKMO have differred so markedly in the pattern evolution, kick started by a long over-due SSW that has eroded (not completely) the Azores high that has given us this mild winter thus far. (another SSW event is forecast but the effects can take weeks to filter down)

A crisp clear sky that only winter can give you

I am now more optimistic than ever that February will be our best shot for a cold and snowy spell (like the good ole days) as many of the building blocks are coming into place for a potent and sustained Easterly or North Easterly which should bring proper snow to the favoured areas.

I often mention how pleased I am with the accuracy of my Long Range Forecast and way back in September I called February to be the coldest and snowiest month and as it currently stands many expert forecasters are calling the same, backed up by the computer models, so If you want, need, desire snow the Siberian express is on its way but its stopping at every station. It will get here but will it be worth the wait?

12 snowless months

The Christmas lights are packed away for another year, the tree has been unceremoniously butchered and discarded at the refuse tip and the zonal, boring weather that characterised much of 2011 has continued into 2012, the London Olympics and Diamond Jubilee year.

Apple inspects two fallen trees

I'm reasonably pleased with my LRF that predicted a much milder December than 2010 but I, like others are surprised at just how mild it has been, I read somewhere that its been the second warmest December on record!

If you're a cold and snow fan you can't fail to be disappointed with what the first month of winter has delivered but my view is that we have been spoilt by the last two winters and the weather we have had in December is pretty much what we normally have, wind, rain and very little snow.

So into January and the theme continues, the unusually windy conditions I predicted for the second week came yesterday with severe gales and damaging gusts bringing widespread damage and disruption with two people losing their lives due to trees being uprooted, more is expected later today but will not be as severe as yesterday.

I stated in my LRF that a change to much colder conditions will happen around mid-month and it does now look like the pattern that has given us this mild weather could be about to change around that time, so a change is likely that could bring drier and colder conditions but that means frosts as opposed to snow I'm afraid.

Chin up though snow-lovers, February is the month I predicted to be the coldest so lets wait and see.