Snow At Last!

Field at the back of my house

Just a quick blog update to post a few pictures.

Apple enjoys the snow

It started snowing last night around 9:15 pm and by this morning I had 8cm (measured from the car roof) not mega amounts by any means but enough to transform the landscape which to me is why I love snow!

Today has seen the temperature just climb above 1C so a slow thaw has set in, which will mean icy conditions as the slush turns to ice overnight.

My road

Things look interesting as we head into the middle of the week as the deep cold affecting Europe will again march towards the UK bringing much depressed day time and night time temperatures so hard frosts and freezing fog will continue to ensure February is, at least until mid-month, a proper winter month!

Burying a car is always fun

Europe Freezes, UK Shivers!

The cold Arctic airmass bottled up over the North Pole for most of the winter has finally been let loose and is causing death and disruption across Eastern Europe with some places having their most severe cold spell for 30 years, temperatures of -20-30 have recorded in many places.
The icy fingers of that deep cold pool has stretched to the UK but thanks to the warm North Sea acting to insulate this island those extreme temperatures are not being experienced here.

severe temperatures over europe

But that doesn't mean that winter has not arrived because it most certainly has. After almost record breaking mild weather so far this winter this weeks temperatures have barely raised the Mercury and has certainly caused a shock to the system!
So,we have the cold but what about the snow? so far this cold spell has failed to deliver for fans of the white stuff, quite frustrating given that the frigid continental air has come from the coldest source and has crossed the warm (in comparison) North sea!
And so to the West we must look for our moisture, warm Atlantic lows are on a collision course with the freezing Siberian highs that are giving us temperatures 4c lower than average so far this month, and where these two systems meet then significant, prolonged snowfall will result, and for the lucky ones, should equal or better December 2010.
The current prediction is that Kent should see the most snowfall but all areas of England are under Met Office yellow alert for Friday, Saturday and Sunday, but as usual some areas could get plastered and some will miss out.
Will we get some here in North Kent?..I think so..

Winter to Arrive Late?

The pattern change I mentioned on my last blog has happened with the benign zonal muck replaced by much more seasonal weather.
I have recorded two successive nights of minus 5 temperatures and so far two lovely, cold sunny days with beautiful crisp blue skies.

Apple bathed in late afternoon January sun

The really interesting feature of this current spell of weather is the way in which the major computer forecasting models, GFS, ECM and UKMO have differred so markedly in the pattern evolution, kick started by a long over-due SSW that has eroded (not completely) the Azores high that has given us this mild winter thus far. (another SSW event is forecast but the effects can take weeks to filter down)

A crisp clear sky that only winter can give you

I am now more optimistic than ever that February will be our best shot for a cold and snowy spell (like the good ole days) as many of the building blocks are coming into place for a potent and sustained Easterly or North Easterly which should bring proper snow to the favoured areas.

I often mention how pleased I am with the accuracy of my Long Range Forecast and way back in September I called February to be the coldest and snowiest month and as it currently stands many expert forecasters are calling the same, backed up by the computer models, so If you want, need, desire snow the Siberian express is on its way but its stopping at every station. It will get here but will it be worth the wait?

12 snowless months

The Christmas lights are packed away for another year, the tree has been unceremoniously butchered and discarded at the refuse tip and the zonal, boring weather that characterised much of 2011 has continued into 2012, the London Olympics and Diamond Jubilee year.

Apple inspects two fallen trees

I'm reasonably pleased with my LRF that predicted a much milder December than 2010 but I, like others are surprised at just how mild it has been, I read somewhere that its been the second warmest December on record!

If you're a cold and snow fan you can't fail to be disappointed with what the first month of winter has delivered but my view is that we have been spoilt by the last two winters and the weather we have had in December is pretty much what we normally have, wind, rain and very little snow.

So into January and the theme continues, the unusually windy conditions I predicted for the second week came yesterday with severe gales and damaging gusts bringing widespread damage and disruption with two people losing their lives due to trees being uprooted, more is expected later today but will not be as severe as yesterday.

I stated in my LRF that a change to much colder conditions will happen around mid-month and it does now look like the pattern that has given us this mild weather could be about to change around that time, so a change is likely that could bring drier and colder conditions but that means frosts as opposed to snow I'm afraid.

Chin up though snow-lovers, February is the month I predicted to be the coldest so lets wait and see.

Christmas Forecast

Some parts of central/ southern England had a covering of snow today, especially on higher ground and here in Hawley we had some heavy sleet for a while around 8am but no settling snow unfortunately, although I did see quite a few cars with snow on them as I was driving.

The 'storm' system that brought this snow on its northern flank has headed into France so the Uk has missed the potentially damaging winds that could easily have brought disruption that was feared.

 Has winter finally arrived?

 If you want a picture postcard Christmas with crisp white snow on the ground and beautiful star-lit frosty nights then you are out of luck this year as it now seems odds on that come the big day we will be under mild south-westerly winds and temperatures could well be in double figures, much milder than average.
So if you're watching the festive pennies and concerned about your heating bills this is your Christmas but if you're after snow then you need to wait until at least mid-January because all the pointers suggest this mild/zonal pattern is here for quite a bit longer yet.

Benign Autumn, Wild Winter!

The unusual weather year continues, following a cooler than average summer we had an almost record breaking autumn with temperatures way above normal and for the South East very little rainfall which is of concern approaching 2012.
The start of Winter has followed in the same chaotic fashion with Severe winter storms battering Western Scotland, bringing damaging winds, torrential rain and snow even at some lower levels whilst the south has remained relatively dry and mild with only the occasional night time frosts... until this week.
The Atlantic continues its onslaught on the British isles with Central/Southern areas due to be hit by two potentially severe storms from tonight and again Thursday/Friday, no snow mixed in I'm afraid but much needed rain and temperatures around normal for this time of year.

Mid November

So what has happened to the snow? well this time last year I was under six inches of snow and at temperatures that made December 2010 the coldest for 100 years, I'm writing this blog having just mowed my lawn.. in a T-shirt! (ok, it was a bit chilly)
As I stated in my winter forecast issued September 1st, this December would be much milder with no white Christmas and that is proving to be the case, I also said that any deep cold would come later (Jan/Feb) and last longer and I have no reason to change my mind at present although I am starting to have doubts that we will get any significant snow or deep cold this winter.

So with no snow for the south on the cards, it's up to the Atlantic storms to keep my meteorological boat afloat at least until Christmas.

Where's the Snow?

I bet a few forecasters are red-faced at the moment, following on from the sensationalist headlines in some of the tabloids predicting an early freeze in October the opposite has happened with October 2011 being one of the warmest since records began.
Here in Hawley the mean temperature for the month was 13.0C, 2C warmer than last October but not as warm as 2007 where I recorded 13.7C.

Bonfire night could be wet

As we start the final month of Autumn the thermometer continues to be above average for this time of year and in the next two weeks we annualise on the start of last years record-breaking freeze that lasted until Christmas.

20th Sept

So what's going to happen this month?
Well for a start Bonfire night looks like it could be cool and showery as we see a more mobile weather hitting us from the South West which looks likely to take us to mid-month, after that there are indications appearing in the computer forecasting models of a major pattern change that could open the door to arctic air flooding the UK and giving us the first taste of winter.

Autumn leaves

Its by no means certain though as many parts of Scandinavia are much warmer than this time last year so there isn't currently a big pool of cold air to tap into, but this could and is likely to change rapidly over the next few weeks, so if you're a cold weather and snow fan these are interesting times.
So get out and enjoy the unseasonably warm weather and take in the beautiful autumn colours before all the leaves have dropped!


Hawley weather

2011/2012 Winter Forecast