Christmas Forecast

Some parts of central/ southern England had a covering of snow today, especially on higher ground and here in Hawley we had some heavy sleet for a while around 8am but no settling snow unfortunately, although I did see quite a few cars with snow on them as I was driving.

The 'storm' system that brought this snow on its northern flank has headed into France so the Uk has missed the potentially damaging winds that could easily have brought disruption that was feared.

 Has winter finally arrived?

 If you want a picture postcard Christmas with crisp white snow on the ground and beautiful star-lit frosty nights then you are out of luck this year as it now seems odds on that come the big day we will be under mild south-westerly winds and temperatures could well be in double figures, much milder than average.
So if you're watching the festive pennies and concerned about your heating bills this is your Christmas but if you're after snow then you need to wait until at least mid-January because all the pointers suggest this mild/zonal pattern is here for quite a bit longer yet.

Benign Autumn, Wild Winter!

The unusual weather year continues, following a cooler than average summer we had an almost record breaking autumn with temperatures way above normal and for the South East very little rainfall which is of concern approaching 2012.
The start of Winter has followed in the same chaotic fashion with Severe winter storms battering Western Scotland, bringing damaging winds, torrential rain and snow even at some lower levels whilst the south has remained relatively dry and mild with only the occasional night time frosts... until this week.
The Atlantic continues its onslaught on the British isles with Central/Southern areas due to be hit by two potentially severe storms from tonight and again Thursday/Friday, no snow mixed in I'm afraid but much needed rain and temperatures around normal for this time of year.

Mid November

So what has happened to the snow? well this time last year I was under six inches of snow and at temperatures that made December 2010 the coldest for 100 years, I'm writing this blog having just mowed my lawn.. in a T-shirt! (ok, it was a bit chilly)
As I stated in my winter forecast issued September 1st, this December would be much milder with no white Christmas and that is proving to be the case, I also said that any deep cold would come later (Jan/Feb) and last longer and I have no reason to change my mind at present although I am starting to have doubts that we will get any significant snow or deep cold this winter.

So with no snow for the south on the cards, it's up to the Atlantic storms to keep my meteorological boat afloat at least until Christmas.

Where's the Snow?

I bet a few forecasters are red-faced at the moment, following on from the sensationalist headlines in some of the tabloids predicting an early freeze in October the opposite has happened with October 2011 being one of the warmest since records began.
Here in Hawley the mean temperature for the month was 13.0C, 2C warmer than last October but not as warm as 2007 where I recorded 13.7C.

Bonfire night could be wet

As we start the final month of Autumn the thermometer continues to be above average for this time of year and in the next two weeks we annualise on the start of last years record-breaking freeze that lasted until Christmas.

20th Sept

So what's going to happen this month?
Well for a start Bonfire night looks like it could be cool and showery as we see a more mobile weather hitting us from the South West which looks likely to take us to mid-month, after that there are indications appearing in the computer forecasting models of a major pattern change that could open the door to arctic air flooding the UK and giving us the first taste of winter.

Autumn leaves

Its by no means certain though as many parts of Scandinavia are much warmer than this time last year so there isn't currently a big pool of cold air to tap into, but this could and is likely to change rapidly over the next few weeks, so if you're a cold weather and snow fan these are interesting times.
So get out and enjoy the unseasonably warm weather and take in the beautiful autumn colours before all the leaves have dropped!


Hawley weather

2011/2012 Winter Forecast

Winter 2011/12 Forecast

A Cold Dry Winter
...but not a record breaker

There has been much speculation and indeed scare-mongering in recent newspapers about early snowfall in autumn leading to a bitterly cold winter.
October and November winter patterns can give reasonable indications of what winter may bring, so to do a forecast now seems a bit fool hardy but its only for fun and you never know I may get lucky!

So here we go....

This winter will be dominated by high pressure systems essentially keeping the Atlantic quiet which will mean a drier than average winter.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler than average when measured over the three months of winter, Dec, Jan and Feb but this winter's pattern will be different to 2010/2011 where the extreme cold lasted just  six weeks from mid November to late December with January and February being milder than average.

The reason I give for this change from last winter is due to recent low sun-spot activity and the increasingly weakening La Nina which both favour the real cold of winter coming later.

December


First two weeks above average temperatures and average precipitation getting colder from mid month with sharp frosts and freezing fog.
Much milder than last December  as a whole but no snowfall and no white Christmas this year

January 2012


Early cold in the first week gives way to a mild spell with low pressure moving in from the west giving unusually windy conditions for January. Possible sleet showers here in the SE.
From mid month onwards high pressure is expected to build drawing in cold easterly winds with the possible threat of disruptive snowfall where the cold air from the East meets the milder air from the West.

Temperatures below average and certainly colder than last January, below average precipitation for the month.

February 2012

The coldest month of this winter with temperatures struggling to get  above freezing during the day for the first three weeks, extremely sharp night time frosts and clear, cold sunny days is the pattern for most of the month.
The last week slightly milder with precipitation much below average for the month as a whole.

Summary

Not as cold as last winter  overall but it will be cold for longer, we just won't have the extreme start to winter we did last year, I don't anticipate much snowfall this year so overall a pretty nondescript winter I'm afraid.

Mercury Rising

A record breaking spell of hot weather is due to come to a close in the next few days but what a spell of weather it has been, cloudless blue skies and warm continental breezes have made it feel like you are on holiday!
The previous October record of 29.4 degrees has been officially broken and here in Hawley my highest was 30.8 on the 1st with the last 6 days being over 25 degrees, better than any spell we had this summer and to see the blue sky at last has been very welcome, just our luck that the nights are now longer than the days!
So record breaking temperatures in October, recent newspaper headlines predicting heavy snowfall this month what is going on?

Apple makes her blog debut as Matt and NND bask in the Indian summer sunshine

I will shortly publish my winter forecast so check back soon!

Batten down the Hatches!

The UK can expect some seriously interesting weather Sunday into Monday when we will get hit by the the remains of Hurricane Katia which is a category1 Hurricane currently off the east coast of the US.

The entire UK will be affected but as yet its hard to pin point what part of the country will bare the brunt of the severe gale force winds and torrential rain but some structural damage and disruption to the start of the working week is likely.
So keep an eye on the latest forecasts.

Click below for 15 minute updates to the weather here in Hawley.

Hawley current weather

Summer Summary

September and as the last of the crops are being harvested from the fields, my thoughts turn to  rainy days, darker evenings and windy nights so a prefect time to reflect on summer 2011.

Cloud cover at St Michael's Mount, Cornwall, August 2011

The Met office have hit the headlines over the last week by stating that this has been the coldest UK summer since 1993, its also been very wet in many parts of the country which has to be a good thing given that we had an unusually dry (and warm) spring. 

Here in Hawley the mean temp for August was 16.6 degrees which is about where we have been over the last five years, but July and June were notably colder.

But its the lack of sunshine that has made this summer so poor and affected the temperature, the met office has said that the UK has had 76% less sunshine than a typical British summer! 

On a positive note the start of  September has shown how warm it can still get when the sun breaks through the oppressive cloud cover, with 27.9 degrees recorded on the 2nd and 26.1 recorded yesterday, but that's it as this coming week will really feel autumnal with lots of rain and high winds forecast.

A rare blue sky, Falmouth, Cornwall, August 2011

So what does all this mean for the coming winter? well it will be highly unusual to get a third succesive colder than average winter but this summer has followed the pattern of the last two so another winter with a spell of bitter weather has to be expected, my guess at the moment is that like last year, the really cold weather will hit late November but will be back to average by Christmas, but who really knows??

            www.t7own.co.uk/Hawleyweather.html

Hottest day of Summer 2011?

After a very sticky night the new working week dawned with the southern half of the UK enveloped by warm winds from Spain and by 15.40 I recorded my highest June temperature of 33.2 C.

Beautiful evening on the hottest day of the year

If you live in a heavily built up area chances are it was even hotter!

This Woodpecker doesn't mind the heat

So is today the warmest we will have this year?

But this really is a mini-heatwave with the change to cooler conditions happening this evening, hopefully with a few tasty thunderstorms!

Half-Year Report

June the 19th and we are smack in the summer season, long warm evenings in the garden drinking wine and cooking food on the BBQ.

Spring drought means crops are struggling to grow

.....well that's how it should be but at the moment you would be forgiven for thinking that we are in April, strong winds, wave after wave of low pressure systems sweeping in from the Atlantic and 62mm of rain so far this month (which is more than the previous 3 months combined) all add up to a poor start to summer.

Summer showers can provide great photo opportunities

It looks like we are paying the price for a record-breaking dry spring but the rain this month has been very welcome to farmers and growers but unfortunately for sun lovers we need much more to replenish the reservoirs and water table, its already too late for many crops with over 30% yield loss so far, some farmers could be facing an uncertain few months.

Looking ahead, Wimbledon fortnight starts tomorrow and I predict a disruptive first week, then we are into the (supposedly) best two months of summer, July and August. No doubt we will have some warm or even hot weather over the next eight weeks or so but time will tell if this summer follows the pattern of the last two, if it does then a very cold winter with interludes of extreme cold and snow could be on the cards again!

Make the most of what you get and I will update this blog with my summer review in september, unless of course extreme weather (heat wave?) changes my plan!

Where has winter gone??

My first blog since boxing day, you may well ask why? well it's simple. The weather has been dull, zonal dross, one of the poorest January's I can remember and in stark contrast to the historic, phenomenal late November / December snowfest.
January's mean temperature was a whopping 4.5 degrees warmer than December with 8 days of  + 10 daytime highs.
As I write this on February 7th the current mean temperature for Feb is a tropical 8.1 degrees with sustained high wind speeds of +20mph over the last 4 days, clearly a typical La Nina winter then?

So what are the prospects of a return to cold, snowy winter weather?  well it would be foolish to rule winter being over at this point but with the days lengthening and the sun becoming increasingly stronger the chances must diminish accordingly, but the truth is...who knows?

Daffodils breaking cover, spring around the corner it seems..